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T.S. Rafael Moving Close to Jamaica, Warnings Issued in Florida Keys

Tropical Storm Rafael is becoming better organized as it moves close to Jamaica today. It could have some U.S. impacts later this week, depending on its track.

As of 10 a.m. EST, Tropical Storm Rafael was located near 17.8 N, and 78.6 W, or about 65 miles southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, and 200 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman. It has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 994 mb or 29.36 inches of mercury. The system was moving northwest at 13 mph.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila. Additional Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge as well as the Dry Tortugas.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move in a northwest direction over the next few days. This track would put it very close to western Jamaica today, then over the Cayman Islands tonight. It would then slide over western Cuba on Wednesday. As it tracks to the northwest, Rafael will slowly intensify, becoming a hurricane by this afternoon. It will likely remain a low-end hurricane as it slides over the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

The storm will bring breezy to windy conditions, heavy rain, dangerous storm surge and destructive winds across the western Caribbean through early Thursday morning. Tropical storm-force winds (maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph) will be likely throughout Jamaica today. Hurricane-force winds (maximum sustained winds >74 mph) will develop across the Cayman Islands tonight and then spread to western Cuba on Wednesday.

Heavy rainfall is expected for the western Caribbean over the next few days, especially Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible, mainly along the higher terrain in Jamaica and Cuba.

Storm surge will generally remain around 1 to 3 feet across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, which could lead to minor coastal flooding. In areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba, water levels could raise to as much as 6 to 9 feet, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.

Once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm’s prospects aren’t quite so bright. Much of its strength will be zapped by the mountainous terrain lining Cuba, and then the system will have to contend with dry air and increasing wind shear as it maneuvers the eastern and central Gulf. It will also slow down considerably.

The forecasts are mixed on exactly what, if any, condition the system will be in as it approaches the Gulf Coast, but it is likely that heavy rainfall can be expected later this week into the weekend from the central Gulf Coast to Florida. Parts of the western Florida Keys could see stronger impacts from this system, with drenching downpours and strong winds on Wednesday.

At this time, the Lower and Middle Florida Keys could start to see tropical storm-force winds beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible, while storm surge could reach 1 to 3 feet. A few tornadoes are also possible Wednesday over the Keys and southernmost parts of the Florida Peninsula.

November is not typically a month with a lot of hurricanes – typically a storm forms on average once per November. However, storms such as 2022’s Hurricane Nicole can still cause significant damage. Keep watching the tropics through the season’s end on November 30.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Southwest Florida Water Management District disputes Don Balaban’s claim of Flint Creek never being dredged or maintained in 75 years. The district said it completed a debris removal project in Flint Creek in March of 2024. The project was funded by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Services.

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Lake Thonotosassa is seeing historic flooding.

Residents along the lake turned to 8 On Your Side after the flooding and they say it wasn’t because of the storm, but instead claim the water was released without warning.

“That’s lake water,” said resident Jamie Slatton. “They’re using it as a stormwater lake. It’s controlled by dam. The water went around the dam.”

Slatton said Lake Thonotosassa used to have a natural shoreline, but a day and a half after Milton, the lake quickly began to rise.

“All of a sudden this water just ran up on us, so Lake Thonotosassa has never flooded like this before,” said Slatton.

The Southwest Florida Water Management District says the lake was drawn down almost 14 inches, which is the maximum amount possible.

“No, no, no, no, they dropped the water three inches,” said Slatton. “Across the lake, it’s up 10 feet and it’s run over the hills and people’s yards.”

Farm owner Don Balaban said water rushed 400 feet into his land, claiming water was released.

“They could’ve got the lake level down what they’re telling you is they can’t because they never maintained it and they can’t get the water out,” said Balaban.

SWFWMD said it has not redirected water into Lake Thonotosassa, but Slatton and Balaban believe otherwise.

“They flooded us to death,” said Balaban. “They have no respect for the property owners, the businesses, or anybody out here. They’re just pouring water in, and they knew it’s negligence by the furthest I’ve ever seen.”

SWFWMD said water naturally flows from the south in Baker Canal and Baker Creek into Lake Thonotosassa and is being released through the Flint Creek structure to the north to the Hillsborough River.

The district said the water is so high that the Flint Creek structure is underwater, and the water is flowing over the nearby land.

According to the structure operations team, the district has the water control structure on Lake Thonotosassa wide open and it has been wide open since before the storm.

“Flint Creek has never been dredged or maintained in 75 years to get the water out,” said Balaban.

Those who live and work here said it’s time for both Flint and Baker Creeks to be dredged.

“We’re not in a flood zone,” said Slatton. “It’s a shame. This is something that happens with building, growth, things like that. It’s poor planning and we got poor performance.”

Balaban and other community members plan to sue SWFWMD for what they call negligence.

“It’s a natural shoreline if you’re gonna raise the lake level and keep it high you better build a seawall for the people there’s no common sense,” said Balaban.